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Experienced Investors are Selling While Novice Investors Rush Into Stocks

May 27, 2020 by Frugal Prof

Value Investing

 

That which isn’t good for the hive, isn’t good for the bee.

Marcus Aurelias, Meditations

 

Experienced Investors are Selling While Novice Investors Rush Into Stocks

 

At some point, even lay people begin to wonder what is happening with the stock market.

We have massive unemployment.  Large parts of the economy aren’t even open for business.  Disneyland isn’t reopening for 7 weeks and when they do, the restrictions will be so onerous, that it will be nearly impossible to make money.

So, how has the stock market has a parabolic run over the past 5 weeks that leaves the Nasdaq and many stocks at or near ALL TIME HIGHS?

Free Money from the Fed:

The US is awash in liquidity from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.  As the election is now getting closer, there is chatter about more “free money.”  More stimulus checks.  Infrastructure plans.  More PPP.  And President Trump wants negative interest rates.

 

Negative Interest Rate Policy:  The Fed is flirting with Negative Interest Rate policy, a radical failed experiment everywhere it has been tried.

Japan’s stock market is flat for the last 30 years.  Their economy is irrelevant.  Their government owns their economy via ETF purchases.  Most international mutual funds and indexes do not even include Japan.  It is irrelevant.

For now, Powell is pushing back on the idea.  But his track record of bowing to the wishes of the President is pretty weak.

 




 

 

Why Buffett is Selling:

Its possible that Berkshire Hathaway has sustained losses in its catastrophic insurance portfolio.  It’s also possible he sees a serious recession on the horizon.

Either way, he has a mountain of cash ~ $130B and is still raising more.  Even if you don’t believe Buffett is at the top of his game, its worth considering why he is so cautious right now.

 

Warren Buffett:  Buffett has sold stakes in airlines and in Goldman, Sachs.

Warren Buffett announced he had sold his entire airline stake on the premise that he wasn’t sure if air travel would return in two or three years.

That’s the most bearish assessment anyone has heard from Mr. Buffett in quite some time.  But, few investors or Algorithmic programs paid much attention to him these days.

 

Sam Zell is Selling:

Sam Zell mentioned this week that he was quite cautious about the future.

“Too many people are anticipating a kind of V-like recovery,” said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“We’re all going to be permanently scarred by having lived through this.”
Just as the depression left behind a generation that couldn’t shake the experience of mass unemployment, hunger and desperation, the burdens this crisis has forced on society may be similarly hard to forget.
Zell, 78, said it won’t be easy for people to live as they did before the “extraordinary shock” of the pandemic.
Investing - Wall Street

Marc Lasry is cautious:

Billionaire investor Marc Lasry says the market isn’t pricing in a recession that will last ‘for a while’

“If you’re going to have all these people unemployed, it’s hard to end up coming out of a recession until that changes.
It’s going to be a difficult couple years,” Lasry said, adding “I just don’t see people that are out of work spending money.” More here

Who the Hell is Buying Stocks?
Novice Investors for one.

 

BARRONS: Day Trading Has Replaced Sports Betting as America’s Pastime.

It Can’t Support the Stock Market Forever.

 




 

CNBC:  Young investors pile into stocks, seeing ‘generational-buying moment’ instead of risk

The major online brokers — Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Etrade and Robinhood — saw new accounts grow as much as 170% in the first quarter, when stocks experienced the fastest bear market and the worst first quarter in history.

 

‘Monumental volumes’

The major online brokers saw a major jump in new users during the coronavirus sell-off, bolstered by zero commissions and fractional trades.

Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger said in an earnings release the broker saw “monumental volumes” of trading from the 609,000 new broker accounts added in the first quarter, with over 280,000 in March alone.

The quarter included 27 of the 30 highest volume days in Schwab’s history.

 

TD Ameritrade — which is set to be acquired by Schwab — said last month that retail clients opened a record 608,000 new funded accounts in the first quarter, with more than two-thirds of those opened in March.

The e-broker’s new accounts proved to “skew younger” over the last quarter,” TD Ameritrade chief market strategist JJ Kinahan told CNBC.

“Perhaps because they’re home or perhaps because of furloughs, they also have time to dedicate to their investments that they didn’t necessarily have before,” Kinahan added.

ETrade, which is set to be acquired by Morgan Stanley, saw a gain of 363,000 accounts in the quarter, a company record.

 

Robinhood users soar

Robinhood — millennial favored stock trading app — saw a mind-blowing 3 million new accounts in the first quarter, despite glitches and crashes on heavy trading volume days.

“The access to trading, there are no barriers to entry anymore, its on your phone, you can buy whatever you want, fractional shares are available so if you can’t pony up $1,400 to buy one shares of Google you can still own the FANG [Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google] stocks,” Welsh added.

 

Investing - Wall Street

 

It never ends well when the novice investors are running into the Wall Street casino while the experienced investors are looking for the exits.

Be careful my friends.

 

Filed Under: Investing

5 Undervalued Stocks “Big Short” Investor Michael Burry is Buying

May 26, 2020 by Frugal Prof

 

Value Investing

 

 

  • Michael Burry – the famed investor portrayed by Christian Bale in “The Big Short” – added 5 new stocks to his hedge fund portfolio in the first quarter, according to a 13F filing from last week.
  • While Burry’s largest holding remains Gamestop, $GME he added new stakes in companies that were negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, like Boeing.
  • Burry’s Scion Asset Management has $387 million in assets under management as of March 31.

 

*Legal Disclaimer:  Information provided herein for educational purposes only.

 




 

Ticker: JACK

Sector: Consumer Discretionary

Position Market Value: $10.5 million

Percent of Scion’s Portfolio: 12.21%

Price: $66.49

P/E:  18

Source: SEC 13F filing

Comments;  The stock is all the way back at $66, but its possible he bought it when it was in the 20’s.

With $7 per share in cash purchasing the shares in the 20’s would give him a purchase in the neighborhood of 3X cashflow, which is extremely reasonable.

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Facebook

Ticker: $FB

Price: $234.91

P/E: 32

Sector: Communications

Position Market Value: $10.0 million

Percent of Scion’s Portfolio: 11.62%

Source: SEC 13F filing

Comments:  Doubtful that he bought the shares for the new Shop feature, since it was just announced and has been a Huge catalyst sending the shares higher.

However, it’s possible he saw the CoronaVirus adding new customers or building in new habits for existing customers.

Not an undervalued situation except as it is undervalued relative to growth.

Investing - Wall Street

3. Boeing

Ticker: $BA

Sector: Industrials

Position Market Value: $8.95 million

Percent of Scion’s Portfolio: 10.39%

Comments; Many investors had their eye on Boeing.  There is the potential for the airline segment to recover and Boeing would be a big beneficiary.  Definitely a contrarian play that requires intestinal fortitude due to the risk.




4. The Michael’s Companies

Ticker: $MIK

Sector: Consumer Discretionary

Position Market Value: $5.27 million

Percent of Scion’s Portfolio: 6.11%

Source: SEC 13F filing

Comments; Michael’s is another contrarian play.  Hard to resist since with nearly $2 in earnings and a $3 share price, its obviously undervalued.

 

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5. umber The Discovery ChannelTicker: DISCA

Sector: Communications

Position Market Value: $6.8 million

Percent of Scion’s Portfolio: 7.90%

Source: SEC 13F filing

Comments; With a share price of $20 and nearly $3 in earnings, this leaves the shares with a miniscule p/e of only 6.

As with most media companies, the area of concern would be the debt.  And discovery still has a lot.

 

Always a worthwhile exercise to review what exceptional investors are buying.

 

Filed Under: Investing, Uncategorized

Powell Comments Sends Stock Market Lower – Fed Sees Significant Downside Risks

May 13, 2020 by Frugal Prof

 

Powell Comments Sends Stock Market Lower – Sees Significant Downside Risks

Value Investing

 

“While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks,”  The Fed Chair said in a speech released Wednesday morning.

 

We played this game back in September.  Do you remember?

Fed Chair Powell gave a speech where he hinted that there would be no more stimulus coming and even mentioned an intention to reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  This was back when the Fed’s balance sheet was only a couple Trillion Dollars.  Now, its near $6T.

 

Anyway, the stock market never likes to hear that the party is coming to an end.  Even when the party started back in 2009 and has been kept going by accomodative Fed policy to placate Presidents and help them get re-elected.

 




 

Yes, I’m talking to you, Janet Yellen.  And now Jerome Powell has become pretty impressive at his job of trying to keep Trump in office for another four years.

The real test of  Fed Chair is whether they can handle a stock market temper tantrum.  Powell folded so quickly back in September that it was beyond embarrassing.  It is now affectionately known as the Powell Pirouette.  And not only did stocks regain their 19% losses, but they got all the way back to All Time Highs.

This brings us to this week.  All investors are speculating whether the Fed will take us where no respectable country has gone before – NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).

Today, Powell seems to hint that more could be done but that NIRP (Negative Rate Interest Policy), where a bondholder pays for the privilege of owning a bond and receives no interest, is not coming soon.

The issue is that the Fed Chair (all recent Fed Chairs) have a lousy track record of standing up to the market when they decline sharply.  Fed Chairs usually give in.  And this one is no different.  It remains to be seen.

 

Stay tuned

 




 

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Filed Under: Blog, Investing

Trump May Let Workers Take Social Security Benefits Early

May 12, 2020 by Frugal Prof

 

 

Trump May Let Workers Take Social Security Benefits Early.

That’s the idea being floated by the White House.

It’s not an exaggeration to say that members of this administration look for ideas to boost the economy (The Stock Market) Everyday.

This has been going on for years now.  Usually, it was a tweet about “China trade optimism.”

Now all the ideas are about free money.  Stimulus checks.  The Fed giving loans.  The Fed buying ETF’s.

 

It never ends

 

Of course, giving Seniors access to Social Security helps because older Americans are getting killed by low interest rates, championed by the President and implemented by the Federal Reserve.  And older Americans vote.  And this is an election year.

 




 

Today’s Idea:  The Trump administration is said to be considering prepaying Social Security retirement benefits to workers before they are eligible, according to The Washington Post. Generally, workers have to be at least 62 and have worked and paid into the system for at least 10 years in order to collect benefits.

 

One proposal the White House is reportedly considering calls for letting Americans take up to $5,000 from Social Security now in exchange for delaying their benefits in the future.

The $5,000 would be structured as a loan with a government-set interest rate that would reimburse the Social Security trust fund with interest.

Individuals who opt into the program would pay that money back when they start collecting Social Security benefits. Their first checks would go toward repaying the loan, for a period of up to three months. After that, they would receive normal benefits.

 

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In a statement, Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans, slammed the proposal.

“Asking working Americans to give up even one dime of their future Social Security benefits to survive today’s economic crisis is a harebrained idea that would hurt families for decades to come,” Fiesta said.

Value Investing

 

This is where we are as a country because we have so little financial education about things like emergency funds.

 

I guess in a world with a deadly virus it is redundant to speak about why you need an emergency fund.

The one thing I’ve noticed from the heartbreaking coverage of the lines of cars at food banks is how so many of them are new cars.  These are people who had access to money and wasted it.

They have no savings.  They expected good times to continue.  They were naive.  And now they are desperate. 

 

Lulu lemon deals

How big should your emergency fund be?

The more stable your income and household are, the less you need in your emergency fund.

If you’re part of a two-income household or you’ve had a steady job for several years, then a three-month emergency fund is probably just fine.

But if you’re a one-income family, you’re self-employed, or you earn straight commission, then a six-month emergency fund is probably a better idea for you since a job loss could make you unable to pay the bills.

 

 




 

 

How to Quickly Build an Emergency Fund

One of the easiest ways to beef up your emergency fund is to sell some stuff!

Go take a look in your garage or dig through your closet—is there anything you could part with? Selling some items that are collecting dust can add up to major cash in your emergency savings. And every little bit helps! You’d be surprised at how quickly $5 here or $10 there can add up.

 

An emergency fund is vital. It’s vital because emergencies happen.

People get sick, lose a job, car accidents happen, tornadoes, hurricanes, riots, fires, earthquakes all happen as well.

As an adult, we prepare just in case something like this happens to us.  Because they will.

  • I am in my late 40’s:
  • I have lost a job,
  • had a health scare,
  • lived in a city that experienced a major riot (Los Angeles 1995),
  • and in a city that experienced a major hurricane and flood (New York 2012).

 

Life happens.  These were all near misses that should have been wake up calls for me.

Don’t wait.  At the very least, start saving for your $1,000 emergency fund today!

 

Having an emergency fund is an umbrella for your life.  Be prepared.

 

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Filed Under: Blog

7 Unbeatable Side Hustles To Make Extra Money While on Corona Virus Lockdown

May 12, 2020 by Frugal Prof

 

7 Unbeatable Side Hustles To Make Extra Money While on Corona Virus Lockdown

 

 

The Coronavirus is impacting countless households when it comes to finances.

Those who are brave enough to check the status of their 401K accounts have seen steady drops. Investors are scrambling. Events are canceled for the foreseeable future.

However, the people hit hardest might be the people who face lay-offs and job uncertainty; the people who work in the everyday sectors.

Shops, restaurants, small businesses, and just about everything else are closing their doors in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

That has left many wondering, “How am I going to make money during the Coronavirus?”

There’s a reason side hustles are becoming more popular these days.

Not only do they allow you to expand your horizons and grow professionally, but they’re a great way to pocket some extra cash.

 

 

1. Web developer

On a basic level, web developers create and maintain websites, but there’s much more to it than that. While some web developers focus on back-end tasks, like creating databases, others use their design skills to create compelling graphics and features.

To work as a web developer, you’ll need to be well-versed in coding or scripting languages like HTML, PHP, and JavaScript, to name just a few.

But if you are, you could easily command $50 an hour for your services, which means that if you work your side hustle for 20 hours over the course of a given month, you could take home $1,000.

 




 

2. Graphic designer

If you’re passionate about graphic design and know your way around popular software such as Photoshop, Illustrator, and InDesign, then you might score yourself some pretty substantial money on the side.

Graphic designers create everything from website images to catalogs and brochures, and they’re often able to charge $75 or more per hour for their services.

Put in 14 hours a month at that rate, and you’ll easily hit the $1,000 mark.

 

Cash surveys

 

3.  Loan Signing Agent

You Earn Extra Income,  Set your Own Hours, and the Income is Fantastic! ($75-$200 per appointment).

• First of all, it’s really good money:

You can make $75 to $200 in a single signing, and a signing takes about an hour.

Part time loan signing agents generally do one to three signings per week, – about $300 to $500 dollars extra a week. while full time agents can do 3-8 signings in a day which is about $400 to over $1,000  dollars in a day.

  • You can start part-time and work around your existing work schedule since most signings occur on evenings and weekends.  Simply pick up work when you want, and keep your day job.

• You can get started with absolutely zero experience.

• You can work from home and be your own boss. Owning your own business can allow you to take advantage its many benefits, such as tax write-offs.

• You have the ability to make money almost immediately.

It pays nearly 9X more than driving for Uber.  However, it requires you to take a class and invest time and money.

If you can do that, then you can start making up to $200 per signing.

Within a year, Julia is now making $10,000 per month. 

Hear her story below. 

 

 

Learn More about the Loan Signing System here.

 

Jobs SAHM

4. Find a Part-Time Gig ASAP

Employment: Now Hiring

The outbreak of COVID-19 has disrupted the American workforce, causing large retailers, restaurants, casinos and other businesses to terminate and furlough employees. Despite this backdrop, there’s a silver lining. These companies represent some of the employers who are actively hiring:

Amazon: The online retailer will spend $350 million to increase pay globally and also will hire 100,000 new employees in the U.S. There are both full-time and part-time positions in fulfillment centers and through the Amazon delivery network.

Albertsons: Albertson’s is a food giant the owns brands such as Safeway and United Supermarkets. Albertson’s will hire 30,000 new employees, including managers and store associates.

CVS: With the surge for pharmaceuticals and other medical needs, CVS will hire 50,000 full-time, part-time and temporary employees. CVS is paying employees a bonus up to $500, and hiring employees for its stores, distributions centers, customer service centers and as delivery drivers.

 




Dollar General / Dollar Tree: These discount retailers will hire 50,000 and 25,000 new employees, respectively, on both a full-time and part-time basis. Available positions range from in-store and distribution centers.

Home Depot: In February, Home Depot announced it would hire 80,000 employees for its spring season, and even will help pay from $1,500 to $5,000 for your education expenses. Over the past 15 years, Home Depot says it has paid more than $130 million of education expenses for its associates.

Instacart: With the demand for grocery delivery as more Americans stay home, the grocery deliver service is hiring a whopping 300,000 full-time shoppers in the coming months.

KPMG: The financial services firm is currently hiring for more than 2,000 open roles.

 

Kroger: Like Albertson’s and other grocers, Kroger will hire 20,000 new employees in its retail stores, distribution centers and plants.

Lowes: The home improvement company will hire up to 30,000 new employees, including both full-time and part-time, to meet demand in its stores. Lowes also introduced a new temporary time-off policy.

Pizza Hut: Pizza Hut is hiring 30,000 new full-time and part-time workers as Americans staying at home order more pizza. Papa John’s will hire 20,000 new employees and Domino’s will add 10,000 more full-time and part-time employees.

Pepsi: Pepsi expects to hire as many as 6,000 new employees in the coming months.

Target: Like Amazon, Target will spend $300 million to increase pay, institute paid leave and raise bonuses. The Minneapolis company also will hire 9,000 new roles.

Walgreens: Like CVS, Walgreens will hire 9,500 full-time, part-time and temporary employees to meet the growing need for medication from pharmacies.

More Here

 

5.  Become a Transcriptionist:

Transcribe documents and movies:  You’ve probably heard of scribie.

They pay 5$ to $20/audio hour. It’s another company that would let you work at your own convenient time. Very flexible and files are usually around 6 minutes or less.

It also has its own software that would allow you to dictate instead of typing.

You can also get promoted once you level up.

 

 

5. Paid Consumer Research

Companies try to understand consumer behavior and trends and they pay you for your time for consumer research via Paid Online Surveys.

These consumer research sites are 100% FREE to join and always pay and pay out on-time.

  • 1. Sign Up. 
  • 2. Confirm your e-mail. 
  • 3.  Earn Money. 
  • 4.  Do them quickly to avoid burnout.

 

These companies are ranked in terms of Quality, Reputation, Earning Potential, and other factors.

For those who want to earn up to the $650+/month mark, I suggest trying out all of the sites on the list and stick with the ones that work best for you.

 

 

Survey Junkie:  (Great Surveys, Little Time, Great Payout)

You  can earn anywhere from $12 – $18 per hour from Survey Junkie!

Survey Junkie has one of the strongest reputations on the web, and they’ve always paid on-time and the right amount. Not only that, but they have excellent customer service if you ever have an issue.

Taking surveys in your spare time can be a great way to earn some extra dough fast. Check out Survey Junkie  which will pay you instantly with cash via Paypal. They have over 6,000,000 members and they have an 8.9/10 rating on Trust Pilot.

 

American Consumer Opinion:   Easy to sign up. And they have 6 Million Members.

Reviews of American Consumer Opinion:  

  • “American Consumer Opinion Panel has been one of the best, and probably THE best, panel that I have worked with in some time…” J.D., Texas –
  • “I do surveys for several different companies and, I have to say, American Consumer Opinion ranks at the top as they have a very good site with no junk [that] seems to be well managed.”  H.B., Tennessee –

Begin earning at American Consumer Opinion:  

 

 

Vindale Research  $2 Registration Bonus Plus Up to $75 Per Survey

11 Survey Sites that could pay you $750 this month.

 

 

5.  Get paid to charge Scooters

 

Bird electric scooter side hustle

Electric Scooter Charging: A New Side Hustle from Bird Pays $30/ Hour

 

Mike Wisell, 33, a tattoo artist who lives in Santa Monica, started a new gig a few weeks ago. He charges scooters and he makes pretty good money doing it.

 Bird is among a handful of companies that rent out electric scooters to get around big cities. The site uses a team of “chargers” to pick up the scooters when they’re running out of juice, bring them home, charge them and return to a “nest.”

Training was simple:

  • sign up,  (No affiliate relationship)
  • take an online video course,
  • receive a set of tools in the mail,
  • then get to work.

He even picks his own hours.

“The pay is pretty good if you hustle,” he says.

More info about Scooter charging here.

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Affiliate marketer

Affiliate marketers earn commissions by promoting other companies’ products.

You can become an affiliate marketer by creating a blog and writing product reviews or sharing information about a particular product, service, or pastime.

Read my post on how to begin a blog here.

For example, if you love cooking, you might start a blog where you share your favorite recipes but include links to certain ingredients or kitchen tools you’re looking to promote.

If your readers click on those links and make purchases, you’ll earn a commission. It’s really that simple. And while you probably won’t start out earning $1,000 a month with this sort of gig, once you build up an audience and find more products or services to promote, you could end up banking that much or more on a monthly basis.

Monetize your blog: 

Monetize your website via Share a Sale  and Flex Offers.

Max Bounty,  This affiliate network partners with dozens of survey companies and has lots of great offers available. Rated as the number 1 top CPA Network by mThink’s BlueBook Rankings 3 years in a row, promoting offers through Maxbounty is a solid choice.

  • Their interface is attractive, easy to use, and fun affiliate contests are held regularly. Run by a very friendly and fun group of people who have been in the business for over 12 years.

Igain Network:  iGain specializes in market research offers and features high quality advertisers on their real-time tracking platform. Offering superior support is their primary objective, and they do so with their friendly team of passionate individuals.

  • These are the best affiliate programs that help you make more money from your followers.  Imagine receiving and extra $1500 a month from your blog traffic.  Advertisers want exposure to blog audiences.  So, it is a win-win.

Ready to start your own blog? … Read my post on the 7 Rules to a Profitable Blog here.

 

 

Free travel

 

 

 

Find Money Owed to You

One of the easiest ways to potentially make some money is to look for unclaimed property. It only takes a few minutes of your time to search and see if you have any money in your name!

My post about how to find money owed to you here

I had over $1,000 owed to me from an old paycheck that was due to me and I had moved.  This is the perfect time to research if you have money owed to you!

 

Filed Under: Income Ideas

Financial Media is in Denial about the Real Economy

May 11, 2020 by Frugal Prof

 

Financial Media is in Denial about the Real Economy

As most of you know, we began this crisis in a financial bubble.

 

The Fed lowered interest rates while the stock market was at all time highs.  A 20% dive in the stock market in September resulted in the “Powell Pirouette.”  The Fed chair managed to reassure investors that he was willing to do whatever it took to restore the stock market, please the President, and ensure a Trump victory.

All of this resulted in a 34% vertical move in the stock market back to All Time Highs.  One of the most ridiculous moves in stock market in history.

 




 

Cheers

 

CEO’s, for their part were using 105% of cashflow to do stock buybacks at lofty valuations.

Bob Iger from Disney earned $771M during this time.  He was so appreciative that he left the company a day after the Corona Virus became a national emergency.  What a guy.  Now, many of the CEO’s from the airlines are seeking federal money or bailouts in spite of their buybacks.

Stock buybacks were designed as a strategy for companies that were undervalued to use their capital in a strategic manner.

Not anymore.

And since Warren Buffett has popularized this strategy, it’s disappointing that he is so quiet on this issue.  Would it be so hard for Mr. Buffett to have raised the alarm that stock buybacks at 105% of cashflow is a dangerous practice that represented greed and short term thinking.  I think not.

 

Value Investing

 

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So, it is strange that as we have the worst unemployment since the great depression, that the financial media would be so sanguine about the current situation.

Barron’s proclaimed that, “Home Prices are likely to hold up just fine” 

which echoes the Wall Street Journal,  “Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic.”

 

“The economy is shrinking, businesses are closing and jobs are disappearing due to the coronavirus pandemic. But in the housing market, prices keep chugging higher.”

Really?  Are they joking?

 

First of all, lets be clear, there is no real estate market right now.

In order to have a real estate transaction, one needs a number of connected parties including real estate agents, buyers, lawyers, appraisers, escrow officers, loan officers, etc…

So, common sense dictates that the real estate market is currently frozen.

The question is where will the clearing price be for real estate when we the market is unfrozen.  When we have market forces at work.  There are thirty million Americans out of work.

Yes, they are receiving financial help from the government for now.  But that is likely to end or be greatly reduced.  We have $25 Trillion in debt right now.  California and New York are begging for financial relief to the tune of Billions of dollars.

When the dust settles, people will need to re-evaluate their financial position.  Very sophisticated investors like Warren Buffett and Sam Zell say that things have changed and compare todays financial realities to the Great Depression. 

I’m sure the real estate market is just like the Nasdaq, which is only 5% off of all time highs.  Of course, the Nasdaq and the public markets are supported by low interst rates and Fed Policy.  The Federal Reserve has $6T to purchase whatever they want and this gives markets great confidence that the Fed will backstop foolish investments.  Perhaps.

 

 

More likely, the financial media are young journalists who have little experience in real markets.

The only Recession they’ve seen was followed by the longest Bull Market in history.  Not an actual bull market.  More akin to a Fed induced bubble where Fed Chairs were afraid to normalize rates and upset investors.

It kept going and going.

In September the market had a correction when it believed that Jerome Powell was serious about normalizing interest rates.  As we discussed previously, that ended with lower rates and stocks at all time highs.  The Fed saves the day again.

 




 

 

 

So, financial journalists have never seen an economic scenario that  can’t be saved by cutting rates.  Rates are at zero right now.  NIRP is a desperate, radical step that has never worked, yet the financial media says little about its dangers.  Warren Buffett gets plenty of airtime on CNBC and never mentions it.

We have 30M unemployed.

And before that, the financial media was promoting strong job gains without acknowledging that the majority of job gains of the last eight years were Bartenders and Baristas.  All work has dignity, of course.

But the economy is pretty fragile when its growth consists of college educated graduates (with significant debt) underemployed working these jobs.  The government job statistics reflect the mentality that a job is a job.  The reality is much different.

Now, many of these Bartender / Barista jobs are gone.  No one knows when they will be back.  The temporary job that many  took which was beneath their skill level just to pay the bills is gone.

 

Right now, It’s hard to get a job driving for Uber.  This creates a financial drain on the whole economy.  Parents that need to continue supporting children will force them to postpone retirement.   All of this has a cascading effect.

 

 

Most of this hasn’t even played out yet.  We’re in the first inning in economic terms.

The reality is no one knows.

For the financial media to be so bullish and confident speaks to their ignorance.

And It’s hard to watch.

 

 

 

Filed Under: Investing

Massive Unemployment Leads to Massive Stock Market Gains

May 8, 2020 by Frugal Prof

Massive Unemployment Leads to Massive Stock Market Gains

 

I’ve been doing this a long time.  And the last two years have been beyond anything I could ever have conceived. The President spends most of his time promoting trade deals and lower interest rates.

CEO’s loaded up on debt and used 105% of cashflow to buyback shares at all time highs.  Stocks achieved excessive valuations.  The Fed cut interest rates with the stock market at All Time Highs.

 

I mentioned a few times never to bet against the President.  My view was that he had enough savvy people around him that knew how to inflate (or manipulate) the stock market. That to do so would be dangerous.

And Yet, Most of the  mistakes I’ve made in the past two years were because I avoided my own intuition.

 

All bets are off.

 

Investing - Wall Street

This week has been the theater of the absurd.

Massive job losses of 30M with hardly a downtick all week.  The Nasdaq is now a whisper below ALL TIME HIGHS.  Investors are giddy.  Risk has been defeated.

 

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That which isn’t good for the hive, isn’t good for the bee.

Marcus Aurelias, Meditations

 

Negative Interest Rate Policy:  The Fed is flirting with Negative Interest Rate policy, a radical failed experiment everywhere it has been tried.

Japan’s stock market is flat for the last 30 years.  Their economy is irrelevant.  Their government owns their economy via ETF purchases.  Most international mutual funds and indexes do not even include Japan.  It is irrelevant.

 

Apple is up 39.22% for the  month.  The company has no guidance.  Couldn’t provide earnings visibility on the recent earnings call.  They issued bonds this week to buy back more stock.  Buybacks are the cotton candy for today’s investors.

 




 

Graham Books

Warren Buffett in 1962 and Benjamin Graham in 1947

Warren Buffett:  Oddly enough, we began this week with warnings from two very influential investors.

Warren Buffett announced he had sold his entire airline stake on the premise that he wasn’t sure if air travel would return in two or three years.

That’s the most bearish assessment anyone has heard from Mr. Buffett in quite some time.  But, few investors or Algorithmic programs paid much attention to him these days.

 

Value Investing

Zell:  Sam Zell mentioned this week that he was quite cautious about the future.

“Too many people are anticipating a kind of V-like recovery,” said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“We’re all going to be permanently scarred by having lived through this.”
Just as the depression left behind a generation that couldn’t shake the experience of mass unemployment, hunger and desperation, the burdens this crisis has forced on society may be similarly hard to forget.
Zell, 78, said it won’t be easy for people to live as they did before the “extraordinary shock” of the pandemic.

And so today the market continues its march towards new highs.  Investors are cheered on by administration talking heads promising a V like recovery.  It is an election year, so what would you expect them to say?

 

The money printing is unlimited as are the stock gains.

Buffett had this to say about the Fed Actions:

“We’re doing things that we really don’t know the ultimate outcome to,” the 89-year-old investing legend said at the virtual meeting. “I think in general they’re the right thing, but I don’t think they’re without consequences, and I think they could be of extreme consequences if pushed far enough. But there would be kind of extreme consequences if we didn’t do it as well.”

 

 




What about the 30 Million unemployed?  They stay on the government statistics for 6 months and then they are removed.  When 12 Million find some sort of new employment (probably less well paying), the talking heads on CNBC and the government economists will gleefully tell you that the job market is “strong”.
It never ends.
Be careful friends.

 

 

 

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Filed Under: Investing, Uncategorized

Ashley’s Side Hustle Brings in $6,000 Cash in 30 Days Amazing Success Story

April 15, 2020 by Frugal Prof

Ashley’s Side Hustle Brings in $6,000 Cash in 30 Days Amazing Success Story

 

 

This story is so inspiring that I had to share it.  Even if you’re not looking for a side hustle or extra income, this story is so inspiring for these challenging times.

Ashley needed a way out because she had a daughter to support.  She tried other side hustles but nothing had worked.  She felt like she let her daughter down.

She wanted to be successful for herself and to support her family.

These are unique times due to the uncertainty of the Corona Virus.  And once the health crisis ends, many people will be looking to add extra income or to replace lost income.  So, legitimate side hustle ideas are critical right now.

I have been impressed with the Loan Signing System due to success stories like this one.

Ashley began this Side Hustle last month (right when the Corona Virus Pandemic began) and she is now making $6,000 per month and GROWING!

She’s buying a new car.  She has less pressure.  She has more money.  In these uncertain times, HER INCOME went up!  Imagine how great that would be.  Ashley followed the course materials, took it seriously, and worked hard.  So that is what she did and it resulted in $6,000 of extra income as a work from home Mom in one month.

Watch Ashley’s Story Below …

 

Disclaimer;   I believe in transparency and want to disclose this page has links to products that I may earn an affiliate commission for purchases you make.  The reader pays nothing.

 

Ashley Became a Certified Closing Agent.

  • One big advantage of becoming a Closing Agent is that you learn a new skill.
  • You Earn Extra Income,  Set your Own Hours, and the Income is Excellent ($75-$200 per appointment).
  • You can get started with absolutely zero experience. You are hired simply based on your location in proximity to the loan signing.
  • Next, you can work from home and be your own boss. Owning your own business can allow you to take advantage its many benefits, such as tax write-offs.
  • • You have the ability to make money almost immediately.
  • It pays nearly 9X more than driving for Uber.  However, it requires you to take a class and invest time and money.
  • If you can do that, then you can start making up to $200 per signing.

 

  • Learn More about the Loan Signing System here

 

 

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One of the Better Side Hustle Ideas I see:

You learn a valuable skill.

You earn an excellent fee of $75- $200 per appointment.

The up front costs are pretty small compared to the actual compensation.

Learn More about the Loan Signing Course.

 

 

Part time loan signing agents generally do one to three signings per week, – about $300 to $500 dollars extra a week. while full time agents can do 3-8 signings in a day which is about $400 to over $1,000  dollars in a day.

• You can get started with absolutely zero experience. There’s no resume checking prior to a loan signing. You are hired simply based on your location in proximity to the loan signing.

• You can work from home and be your own boss.

• You have the ability to make money almost immediately.

It pays nearly 9X more than driving for Uber.

However, it requires you to take a class and invest time and money.

If you can do that, then you can start making up to $200 per signing.

You are not alone – Once you learn the course material, there is a Private Mentorship Facebook group that is there every step of the way in case you need help or advice.

Anyone can do it.

 

Stay safe friends

 

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Filed Under: Income Ideas, Uncategorized

Trump Needs to Use The Defense Act to Bring Back the McRib

April 4, 2020 by Frugal Prof

Trump Needs to Use The Defense Act to Bring Back the McRib

 

These are hard times and the President is now using the Defense Production act to ensure production of vitally needed goods like ventilator masks. That’s fine

But Americans need some sort of relief and many are looking for the President to use these special powers to force McDonalds into bringing back the wildly popular McRib sandwich

 

If you’re a McRib fan, you know the feeling of wondering if you’ll ever see the sandwich again. You feel anxiety not knowing how long the good times will last.

And when they end (as they always do), you feel the emptiness in your soul like a punch to the gut.

 

Courtesy of McDonalds

 

McRib  lovers were jolted  in 2005 when it was taken off the menu during its first of many farewell tours.

 

McRib: How it all Began

McDonald’s chef Rene Van Damm  is credited with coming up with the sandwich.

It all started when the French-trained chef found himself exploring the local cuisine in South Carolina after a serious night of partying with Ronald McDonald and the Hamburglar

Van Damm was visiting Charleston, S.C. when he found inspiration in the region’s famous pulled pork.

He was responsible for coming up with the next big thing. He believed the combo of flavors in the pulled pork sandwich—smoky meat dripping in tangy barbeque sauce—could be McDonald’s next signature item.

What better way to cheer up a country than bringing back the McRib!

 

Cheers

 

 

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Filed Under: Humor / Funny

Stimulus Plan Checks for Corona Virus – What you need to Know

March 27, 2020 by Frugal Prof

Stimulus Plan Checks for Corona Virus – What you need to Know

 

Stimulus Checks Details

Individuals earning a gross adjusted income up to $75,000 a year will be eligible to receive a $1,200 check.

From there, the checks will be reduced by $5 for every $100 in income above $75,000.

They phase out completely if you earn $99,000 or more.

Married couples earning a gross adjusted income up to $150,000 will receive $2,400.

Checks phase out completely at $198,000 for couples. Heads of household will receive $1,200 if they earn up to $112,500, phasing out completely at $136,500.

Children:  Additionally, heads of households and married couples will receive $500 per child under 16.

This calculator can help you determine how much you might receive in a stimulus check.

 




 

Who qualifies?

You need a Social Security number to qualify for a relief check. As noted above, individuals earning up to $99,000, and couples earning up to $198,000, will receive a check, though the amount will vary.

You do not need taxable income to receive a check. However, if you don’t typically file a tax return, you will need to do so for 2019 before you will be eligible, according to AARP.

 

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How will the checks be sent?

The checks will be sent via direct deposit if you’ve already provided the IRS with your bank account information. If you received a refund this year deposited directly into your account, you’re all set.

If the IRS doesn’t have your direct deposit info, you will get a check in the mail.

 

Jobs SAHM

Will retirees get a stimulus check?

Yes, many people receiving Social Security benefits will be eligible for a check, as long as their gross adjusted income meets the requirements.

 

Will gig workers get a stimulus check?

Yes. As long as you have a Social Security number, filed taxes in 2018 or 2019 and meet the income requirements you will receive a check.

Bird electric scooter side hustle

Will you still get a stimulus check if you recently lost your job?

Yes. If you filed taxes in 2018 or 2019 and meet the income requirements you will receive a check. However, if you recently lost your job because of the coronavirus but your income was over the eligibility requirements in 2019, then you will not receive the check. But you can still apply for unemployment.

 

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Do you need to apply for the checks?

No. The checks will be sent automatically by the IRS. However, if you have not filed a 2018 or 2019 tax return, you should do so.

 

When will the stimulus checks go out?

People will start receiving relief checks, or direct deposits, within three weeks, according to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

Some experts, though, say that is unrealistic and that it could take much longer.

Those who do not have direct deposit information on file with the IRS can expect to wait longer to receive a check in the mail, just as they would have to wait to receive their tax refund.

 

Value Investing

What happens if my money doesn’t show up?

If a payment doesn’t hit your bank account or mailbox, or you get less than you think you’re owed, you can make claim for what you think you’re owed on the tax return you file in 2021. You also could try calling the IRS in hopes of reaching someone on the other end. When the IRS sent stimulus checks in 2008, calls to the agency more than doubled, and many taxpayers weren’t able to get their questions answered, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office.

 




 

Investing - Wall Street

How much will this cost the U.S. government?

The total cost will come to about $290 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think tank.

Another group, the Tax Foundation, pegs the cost at $301 billion.

There’s not yet an official score from the congressional tax scorekeeper, the Joint Committee on Taxation.

 

Dont get caught by Scammers

Unsurprisingly, scammers are already looking for ways to cash in on unsuspecting victims. The Federal Trade Commission recently warned consumers that the government will never ask you to pay money upfront to receive the checks, or call you to ask for personal information like your Social Security number of bank account number, all of which are typically scams.

You will either receive a direct deposit, or a check in the mail. The government will not send you the payment via Venmo or another app. Direct deposits are more secure than paper checks, so if you are relying on the latter, be vigilant about checking your mailbox.

 

Filed Under: Blog

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